Pennsylvania will likely experience the country’s largest estimated dollar exposure to Canada’s new retaliatory tariffs, according to a trade analysis by Professor of Political Science Ayse Kaya , co-founder of Swarthmore’s Global Studies Program, and Aslı Leblebicioğlu, the Marxe Chair in International Economics at Baruch College.

Rather than relying on aggregate state trade figures, Kaya and Leblebicioğlu conducted the analysis at the product level. Matching each state’s 2025 exports to Canada against the 715 product lines covered by the new tariffs, they then applied Canada’s tariff rate to each affected product. 

This new approach estimates that Pennsylvania has approximately $862 million in tariff-weighted exposure — the highest total of any state. The analysis also reveals that the potential pressure is neither geographically nor politically concentrated.

The expected impact of the tariffs cuts across party lines, Kaya and Leblebicioğlu say. The potential economic and political pressure is not confined to one party or region.

Due to the fast-moving nature of global economic developments that call for timely, publicly accessible, data-driven analysis, the article was published on Kaya’s Substack blog on the global economy, Cold Takes on Hot Issues. 

The complete piece, including its methodology, maps, and state-level comparisons, is available online here.

A scholar of international political economy, Kaya served as a Senior Advisor at the U.S. Department of State from 2023 to 2025. She is the author of Power and Global Economic Institutions (Cambridge University Press), co-editor of Global Inequality: Patterns and Explanations (Polity Press), an associate editor of International Studies Quarterly, a board member of the American Journal of Political Science, and a former recipient of a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Affairs Scholars.