Consequences:

Yes, that's right: viruses can evolve. In fact, that's almost all they do. The H5N1 strain of bird flu is, indeed, very lethal if you are unlucky enough to contract it from your pet chicken, but currently it (the flu, not the chicken) is terrible at jumping to another person. Avian flu is thus only a concern if it evolves human transmissibility. So the next time you're cornered by an anti-evolutionist at a cocktail party, bring up avian influenza and ask them whether they really doubt that viruses evolve. If they don't think that evolution occurs, they will have absolutely no reason to fear H5N1. The situation is, therefore, wonderful at exposing a person's true beliefs. In particular, most "objectors" to evolution don't really doubt that species change over time or that new species are created naturally -- what they are concerned about is the possibility that such knowledge will cause children to abandon belief in the supernatural.

But, for argument's sake, what if all evolution objectors truly doubted the reality of evolution? If all evolution-objectors "passed" on Tamiflu and vaccines, the United States government could save billions of dollars. Perhaps states could modify their drivers' licenses accordingly so that healthcare professionals wouldn't waste medications on these people:

Possible responses:

Of course, if large numbers of citizens doubted gravity, it wouldn't be moral to urge them to go test their beliefs on a local bridge, even if doing so would increase the percentage of non-dead Americans that accepted gravity. Similarly, nobody should really recommend that anti-evolutionists opt out of medications. But avian flu evolution should be pushed, hard, as a learning opportunity for the nation. In other words, if somebody acknowledges that life evolves, then that person accepts evolution...even if that person doesn't like the implications of such acceptance.

If you are a healthcare professional:
Explain virus evolution to your patients. If your patients don't accept evolution but still seem to agitate for vaccine, tease them mercilessly. If a person objects to evolution yet simultaneously accepts that viruses will evolve, they are pathologically deceitful, mentally challenged, or both.

If you are a patient:
Ask your doctor about avian flu and whether it might evolve into something you should worry about. If he or she answers that evolution doesn't occur, ask whether they have a real medical degree, and ask to see it. You should probably find a new doctor, too.

If you are a White House speechwriter:
Get President Bush to use the word "evolve" in his gloom-and-doom speeches about bird flu. It would be hugely entertaining. [If you would be entertained, set yourself up with a Google Alert that will email you, immediately, when "bush evolve avian flu pandemic" pops up in the news.]

If you work at the CDC:
For the love of God, use "evolve" more often on your avian flu pages. Just 4 times so far (pretty lame for such a huge site).

If you are a journalist:
Use "evolve" as many times as your editor allows. Extra points if you use it in the title.

• "Evolution of H5N1 avian influenza viruses in Asia" (article in Emerging Diseases, Oct. 2005)
• "Genetic analyses suggest bird flu virus is evolving" (article in Science, May 2005)
• World Health Organization
• United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Google news search for "avian flu"
• Blogs: 'Avian Flu', 'H5N1'
• RSS feeds: http://birdflurss.com/, feed://rss.news.yahoo.com/rss/birdflu

Contact information
Colin Purrington
610-328-8621 (office)

Evolution Outreach Projects | Purrington Home | Dept of Biology | Swarthmore College